,聽a professor of聽聽at the聽聽and the director of the聽, argues in a that the war in Ukraine won鈥檛 end until Russian and Ukrainian expectations intersect.
鈥淭he war in Ukraine, like any other, cannot end while the two sides have wildly different expectations about the likely outcome if both stay in the fight,鈥� write Goemans, an expert on war termination, and his coauthor, a professor of political science at the
The duo argues that warring is a process of learning and reassessing information鈥攁bout both the opponent鈥檚 and one鈥檚 own military capabilities, organizational strength, political will to fight, and the reliability of one鈥檚 allies. 鈥淧eople pay too much attention to what politicians say and too little to the most important sources of credible new information: observed behaviour and the battlefield itself,鈥� they write.
Addressing Western allies directly, they contend that signaling commitment on one hand, while trying to manage expectations on the other, can be difficult. 鈥淵et that is what Western leaders should be doing,鈥� they write. 鈥淚nstead of fairy tales about Ukraine winning in mere months, they should explain to their people why aid should be sustained, or increased, even though the war will not end soon.鈥�
Goemans is the author of聽 (Princeton University Press, 2000) and coauthor of聽聽(Cambridge University Press, 2011).
- Read the full opinion piece in (subscription required).
- Listen to Goemans on a recent episode of WXXI鈥檚 Connections with Evan Dawson in which he discusses .
